Saturday, May 14, 2011

The 2011 Offseason



It is once again that dreaded time of year for fans of Pittsburgh sports teams.  The Offseason. It is the stretch from anywhere between April until mid-September where Yinzers have nothing to look forward to, except another losing season from the beloved Pirates. The longer the Penguins go into the playoffs, the more time that we don't have to divert our attention to the Pirates, but when the Pens lose early in the playoffs, the Battling Bucs are all we have.  Normally, we at least get a break from them beginning in July, when the Steelers start their training camp, but this year that saving grace is up in the air with the on going labor dispute in the NFL. In other words, this could be a very long summer for Pittsburgh, but hopefully it is a rewarding one when Ray Shero re-tools the lineup for next Fall. 


This post will focus on the Pens moving forward towards the beginning of training camp in September and the beginning of the regular season at the start of October. Ray Shero will have a very busy offseason as he has to deal with filling out a roster that currently has 10 unrestricted free agents and 2 restricted free agents. After the jump there will be a suggestion of next year's potential lines as well as insight into who Ray Shero should focus on resigning before the beginning of free agency this summer.  




Prospective Lines
Here is my suggestion on what the Pens' lines should look like next year. 


Forwards


James Neal--Sidney Crosby--Chris Kunitz/Pascal Dupuis
No doubt Chris Kunitz has formed a stable chemistry with Sidney Crosby, but there is also no doubt that the Pens acquired James Neal to play next to Sid.  Can both players share the ice with the Captain? Or will the Pens revert back to Pascal Dupuis who has shown he can be at the places on the ice where Sid is expecting him to be? I think Kunitz and Neal get the go with Sid, even though both are left wingers. I don't think the shift to right wing will be that big of a deal for Kunitz.


Eric Tangradi--Evgeni Malkin--Dustin Jeffrey/Pascal Dupuis
A line of Tangradi--Malkin--Jeffery would be delightful in the eyes of Ray Shero.  He would see two young guys fulfilling their potential to be top 6 players for the club. Jeffery is listed at left wing, but has shown great versatility during his call-ups with the Pens and could play on either side of Malkin. But could the inexperience of Jeffery and Tangradi render this line ineffective with Malkin at center?  If so, then we have the option to resign Pascal Dupuis, who has shown the capability to skate with either Sid or Malkin. I really like Tangradi slotted in left wing, but only if he can improve this offseason just as he did last summer when he put himself into a position to have a chance at making the team out of training camp.


Tyler Kennedy--Jordan Staal--Matt Cooke
I think keeping this line together would further the success of the Penguins, and resigning Tyler Kennedy does exactly that. If the top two lines can click, this gives Bylsma a lot of options on how to deploy the top three lines. These three guys have had chemistry for a while now, and routinely keeps the top line of opposing teams hemmed into their defensive end. This frees up Sid and Malkin's line for more favorable match-ups. There is no need to break this line up, unless we cannot resign Tyler Kennedy who is a restricted free agent. More on that below.


Arron Asham/Mike Rupp--Mark Letestu--Craig Adams
Letestu showed what he brings to the ice throughout the year, but he was only mediocre at best on faceoff dot during the postseason, but can play on the 4th line, and probably be a great fit, both salary-wise and chemistry-wise. Craig Adams is a beast on the penalty kill, and I think it is essential that he is in the black and vegas gold next year.  


Defenders
Brooks Orpik--Kris Letang
Zbynek Michalek--Paul Martin
Ben Lovejoy--Matt Niskanen
Deryk Engelland


The defense is under contract for next year after Ray Shero's prowess during the free agency period last season. The Penguins allowed the 7th fewest goals against in the league during the regular season (199). The defense stays the same unless there is a trade offer that Ray Shero cannot refuse.


Free Agency
With 12 players potentially leaving Pittsburgh we will take a look at each one and the circumstances surrounding their potential contracts. All salary figures are from CapGeek.


Craig Adams (UFA):--80 GP, 4G 11A, -5, 76 PIM--2010-11 Salary: 550,000


Bringing back Adams has to be a priority for Shero because Adams is a fixture on the power play unit which was at the top of the league at the end of the regular season. He routinely sacrifices his body to block shots, and makes plays that get the job done.  While he may not possess the skill set of the more talented players on the Penguins he has the will to make the necessary plays even if that means taking a puck for the team.  Of course there are other players who can do much the same, but there are few hockey players who are as dedicated as Craig Adams to doing what he does on the ice.  


Dustin Jeffrey (RFA)--25GP, 7G 5A, +5, 4PIM--2010-11 Salary: $509,444


Dustin Jeffrey may be poised for a top 6 role alongside Evgeni Malkin come next fall. He showed great versatility this year filling in for injured players as well as has making the right plays at the right time. We saw Jeffery come into his own before suffering a knee injury which cut his season short. Being a restricted free agent, Ray Shero should have no trouble resigning him. I also think we see him receive a one way deal because he is likely ready for a full-time NHL role for the Penguins.  


Tyler Kennedy (RFA)--80GP, 21G 24A, +1, 37 PIM--2010-11 Salary: $725,000


Tyler Kennedy had his career year in 2010-11, scoring at least 20 goals in a season for the first time. While TK's play can be unnerving at times, he really stepped up when the injuries happened. He is also part of that third line that being kept together might be essential to the success of the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Like Jeffery, TK is a restricted free agent, and Ray Shero shouldn't have many problems resigning him. However, TK showed what he could do when given more ice time which could  lead to a team providing an offer sheet if they want to risk taking a chance on him playing top 6 minutes for an entire season. It is a possibility that very well could happen, but it may be unlikely. Getting a deal done sooner rather than later is necessary in the case, because we don't want to see the Pens go to arbitration with a 20 goal scorer.  


Mike Rupp (UFA)--81G, 9G 8A, -4, 124 PIM--2010-11 Salary: $825,000


Mike Rupp has fit into his role well as a fourth liner on this team.  He brings size, toughness and grit to the lineup, which is a necessity in today's NHL. I think he shares time with Arron Asham on the 4th line wing next year.    


Arron Asham (UFA)--44GP, 5G 6 A, Even, 46 PIM--2010-11 Salary: $700,000


Asham fills much the same role as does Mike Rupp, but provides a little more speed and better hands. His four points (3G 1A) in the playoffs was tied with Kris Letang and Max Talbot as the most on the team, and he led the team with 3 goals in 7 games. Arron Asham was one of those guys on the Flyers who I thought would be a great fit for the Penguins, and he was when he was healthy and it showed come April.  It won't be an easy decision to decide between Rupp and Asham. I don't think Godard will be back next year, so the Pens will have room to keep both players if their cap situation allows it. 


Pascal Dupuis (UFA)--81GP, 17G 20A, +16, 50PIM--2010-11 Salary: $1,400,000


This will be one of the toughest decisions Ray Shero will have to make in his tenure as general manager. Pascal Dupuis found chemistry next to Sidney Crosby on the top line and has scored at least 15 goals the past two seasons.  He kept pace with his production from a year ago, even though Sid missed half of this season. There is no arguing that Dupers is a valuable asset to this team and he has been nothing short of reliable during his time with the Penguins. He can play with either Sid or Geno and that is something that not many players can put on their resume. However, given his salary, and with the young guys possibly ready to fulfill their roles, there may not be room for him. However, there is a possibility that Tangradi and Jeffery both get two-way deals which would enable them to play for the Penguins' AHL affiliate Wilkes-Barre Scranton, and would allow Dupuis to fit into the lineup. It would be detrimental to lose Dupuis, because he will always be that player Bylsma knows can skate with Sid on the top line, when others can't get the job done.  


Max Talbot (UFA)--82GP, 8G 13A, -3, 66PIM--2010-11 Salary: $1,050,000


This will anger a lot of Pens fans, but there may no longer be room for Max Talbot in the city of Pittsburgh.  He would be a perfectly capable 4th line center or winger, but his salary may be too much for that role. Mark Letestu can fulfill the role of a fourth line center at half the price, but we don't get that locker room guy from Letestu as we do from Talbot. It's tough to see what Talbot brings to the table outside of being a fan favorite and a locker room guy, that other guys on the Penguins can't bring. The Penalty kill may be what saves Talbot, and earns him a contract, but players like Dustin Jeffrey can work on the penalty kill. With all that being said, I think we may have seen the end of Max Talbot in the black and vegas gold. However, we will remember the two goals of Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals for the rest of our lives, and we thank him for being an enormous part in bringing the Cup back to Pittsburgh.

Nick Johnson (UFA)--4GP, 1G 2A, +1, 5PIM--2010-11 Salary:  $500,000

Could possibly sign a two-way deal and see time between the Baby Pens and the NHL club. He only played 4 games with the Pens and suffered a concussion while doing so. He should fill a role on the wing sooner or later, and it would be wise to keep him within our system.


Chris Conner (UFA)--60GP, 7G 9A, +5, 10PIM--2010-11 Salary: $550,000


If the Shero is able to sign him to a two way deal then he will have a place somewhere within our system, but at age 27, that is unlikely as he may be able to fulfill at bottom 6 role on a lot of other teams. He seemed to be favored by Coach Bylsma for his speed, and seemed to fit the system well because of it.  On the other hand, he was very ineffective down the stretch and seems to lack some strength, especially in situations along the boards.  


Alexei Kovalev (UFA)--74GP, 16G 18A, -6, 44PIM--2010-11 Salary: $5,000,000


It was good to see AK 27 back in the Burgh, but even though his skill showed at some points during the year, he was relatively ineffective with two goals and seven points during his 20 games played with the Pens, as well as one goal and one assist in seven games versus Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Kovy does not fit our system and has lost a step, and as such, it seems it would be highly unlikely for the Pens to resign him.  


Mike Comrie (UFA)--21GP, 1G 5A, -4, 18 PIM--2010-11 Salary: $500,000


Mike Comrie was injured for most of the year, and was almost invisible on the ice when he was healthy during the regular season. He did seem like he would fit well during the pre-season, but things changed once it was time for the real deal. He will not be back next year.


Eric Godard--19GP, 0G 3A, +4, 105PIM--2010-11 Salary: $750,000


Godard's time is up as well in the city of Pittsburgh. He only played 19 games, and the enforcer role is slowly becoming nonexistent in the NHL. It is not responsible cap management to employ a fighter for $750k when you have Engelland in your lineup, as well as Asham or Rupp who will gladly answer the bell.  




Recap
Those are your free agents for this offseason, and I think the roster filling will be done mostly in house because of cap situation of the Penguins as well as the depth that the entire organization contains. While Ray Shero will have a few tough decisions, he has the opportunity to wrap up his roster well before July 1st. Of course all of this could be completely wrong and Shero could shock the world by pulling some sort of trade along the way to the start of the 2011-2012 season.  

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