The Offseason Review Series: Tyler Kennedy

Over the next few weeks, The Pond will take a look at how different aspects of the team performed throughout the 2010-2011 season, and consider the criticisms offered about them. This will be a series of posts updated pretty frequently to give us as fans an opportunity to look towards the 2011-12 season and discuss any areas which we would like to see the Pens improve upon in the future.

Tyler Kennedy

Tyler Kennedy had a career, breakout year with the Penguins this season, scoring 21 goals, and recording 24 assists, which totaled 45 points. All three were career highs for the 24 year old winger. Kennedy becomes a restricted free agent on July 1st, and is an integral part of the Penguins' 3rd line alongside Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke. With his breakout season, Kennedy is due for a bit of a raise even in light of the injury circumstances surrounding the team which led to him receiving more ice time.  

In The Pond's post taking a look at the Penguins' free agency situation we had this to say about Kennedy: 

Like Jeffery, TK is a restricted free agent, and Ray Shero shouldn't have many problems resigning him. However, TK showed what he could do when given more ice time, which could lead to a team providing an offer sheet if they want to risk taking a chance on him playing top 6 minutes for an entire season. It is a possibility, that very well could happen, but it may be an unlikely scenario. Getting a deal done sooner rather than later is necessary in the case, because we don't want to see the Pens go to arbitration with a 20 goal scorer.  

We were obviously mistaken as to what Kennedy's camp believes his compensation under a new deal should be.  Rob Rossi over at the Pittsburgh Tribune Review reported in his recent post on his Chipped Ice Blog that:

I also get the feeling, at least from talking with the Penguins, that early talks with reps for RW Tyler Kennedy leave the sides far apart on terms for a new deal. Kennedy is a restricted free agent on July 1, and I’ve heard his camp is seeking close to $2 million annual on a new deal. At the very least, the Penguins are aware that going to arbitration with Kennedy could cost them a lot more than the $725,000 that represented his cap hit the last two seasons.

That $2 million number prompted many Pens fans to react by saying it's time for the Pens and Tyler Kennedy to part ways. However, the gut reaction may not take into consideration the consequences of letting a player like Kennedy go. The Pens would be giving up a player that is likely to score anywhere between 10-20 goals for them next season. If the Pens were to part ways with Kennedy, how do they replace that production? Certainly it gives the Pens room to resign Pascal Dupuis, but his numbers wouldn't replace Kennedy's unless he increases his production. When taking into consideration the Pens' current cap situation which has $55 million committed to 17 players, would not allow the Pens to meet Kennedy's demands unless next year's cap ceiling goes up a substantial amount.

The Pens have two choices in this situation. The first is try to work out a deal that would allow them to keep Kennedy within the constrains of their cap requirements, and if that fails, take him to arbitration hoping that his compensation number is well less than $2 million. The second option is to move Kennedy before free agency, in attempt to acquire assets to add depth to the organization and hope a player like Dustin Jeffery or Eric Tangradi can replace his production. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not Tyler Kennedy is worth the $2 million dollars that his camp believes he is.


Regular Season Stats.


In light of all the injuries we saw Tyler Kennedy get top 6 ice time and increase his production. We will take a look at his stats over the past few seasons to see if the increase in ice time and production may be worth the raise he is asking for.  

2007-08: 55 GP, 10 G, 9 A, 19 PTS, 12:13 Time on Ice Per Game

2008-09: 67 GP, 15 G, 20 A, 35 PTS, 13:46 Time on Ice Per Game

2009-10: 64 GP, 13 G, 12 A, 25 PTS, 12:34 Time on Ice Per Game

2010-11: 80 GP, 21 G, 24A, 45, PTS, 14:31 Time on Ice Per Game.

From these stats it is clear that Kennedy has shown an increase in production when given more ice team. This is evident from the 2007-08 season to the 2008-09 season and from the 2009-10 season to this season. There also is correlation that his numbers decline when his ice time declines and is noticeable when comparing the 2008-09 season with the 2009-10 season. Of course Kennedy's camp can argue that if he is given top 6 ice time than his numbers will continue to increase, and this would be a very valid argument.  On the other hand, Kennedy does not have a full season with top 6 ice time, and whether or not he can keep his pace up to increase production with a full season of top 6 ice time is merely theoretical. Because these numbers have not been tested over the duration of an 82 game regular season, this may mitigate the $2 million number Kennedy is seeking especially during an arbitration situation

Playoff Stats

Another factor mitigating Kennedy's case for a $2 million salary is the fact that he has produced, what can be described as mediocre playoff numbers. He had only 3 points in 7 games this year in the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning. His most points came during the Pens 2009 cup run when he recorded 9 points in 24 games. His argument for a pay increase to $2 million per season would have held more water had he contributed more in the first round series against the Lightning in the situation of being on the top two lines. The fact is that he did not do so, and even when considering the rest of the team did very little, Kennedy had an opportunity to increase the strength in his argument that he should receive the compensation he believes is equitable. 

2007-08: 20 GP, 0 G, 4 A

2008-09: 24 GP, 4 G, 5 A

2009-10: 10 GP, 0 G, 0 A

2010-11:  7 GP, 2 G, 1 A

What Happens to Tyler Kennedy?

Things just got interesting in regards to Kennedy's next contract. If the number of $2 million is the starting, point then Shero will have to get that number down to lessen the cap hit if Kennedy is going to skate for the Penguins next season.  Even given the fact that he has only scored one 20 goal season, and only has surpassed 40 points for the first time in a season this year, teams may still take a chance on TK to give him the money he wants. Outside of his career year taking place this past season, nothing suggests that Kennedy is top 6 material and giving him that chance is still a bit of a risk. His situation is comparable to that of Colby Armstrong, when Toronto paid him $3 million per year. The difference is that Armstrong scored 20 or more goals in three out of his five years in the league prior to the deal with the Leafs, and brings a little more grit to the game than does Kennedy. With Kennedy stepping into the spotlight of being a 20 goal scorer for the first time, at lot of "Ifs" surround him, and this is the aspect that benefits the Pittsburgh Penguins.

However, if Shero can get that number down to $1.5 million or below, and increase the years, then the the deal needs to be made. Replacing a guy that can put up 15 to potentially 20 goals a year is no small task.  While the Penguins are going to be relying on their younger roster members to provide scoring depth, whether or not they can do so to the extent to replace Kennedy's numbers is another question that will be answered in the near future.